Met Office mea culpa
In its mea culpa, the Met Office says, “Even though our forecast of August rainfall is for near- or above-average amounts, we also predicted above-average temperatures. Indeed we have had some spells of fine, dry and, in some areas, even hot weather so far this month.
“The weather for July was disappointing, especially in terms of rainfall, which came after the fine weather in early summer and the heatwave at the end of June and beginning of July.
“In April our seasonal forecast for the summer (June, July and August) stated that there was a 65% probability of a warmer-than-average and near- or drier-than-average summer.”
The news release stated: “The coming summer is ‘odds on for a barbecue summer’… Although the forecast is for a drier and warmer summer than average it does not rule out the chances of seeing some heavy downpours at times. However, a repeat of the wet summers of 2007 and 2008 is unlikely.”
On the bigger issue of longer-term forecasts in general, the Met Office says, “Seasonal forecasting is a developing area of meteorology and, although these forecasts are nowhere near as accurate as our short-term forecasts, they do demonstrate some skill in predicting what may happen for a season ahead — if they are looked at over a number of years.”
So now we know. If only they hadn’t used that PR-type phrase.
